Impacts of global climate change on Switzerland

Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme weather events worldwide. If production facilities abroad are damaged by storms and flooding, or if there are crop failures, this can also affect Switzerland indirectly through delayed or failed deliveries of goods or services, price increases or fluctuations in quality.

The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Switzerland project provides initial insights into how Swiss supply chains might be indirectly affected by storms and floods in other countries, both now and in the future. The results make it possible to estimate the indirect effects and identify risks. However, they should be understood as estimates of possible impacts rather than precise predictions due to the limited data available, the assumptions made and uncertainties in the modelling.

The project offers a scientifically sound insight into the broader correlations and raises awareness of the need to take even indirect dependencies on global climate change into account.

-- Samuel Brown, CelsiusPro

Which challenges lie ahead?

Climate change has a wide range of physical effects: rising temperatures, sea-level rise and more frequent and severe extreme events such as heavy precipitation, droughts, forest fires and storms. These effects damage infrastructure, crops and farmland and disrupt supply chains, which can lead to critical supply shortages and financial losses.

In a globalised economy, impacts are felt far beyond the regions directly affected. Disruptions in one part of the world can trigger a cascade of indirect impacts that affect supply chains, trade flows and economic stability on a global scale.

Switzerland’s strong dependence on international trade means that these indirect impacts could be enormously important. They are reflected in production losses resulting from non- or delayed delivery of raw materials, goods and services from abroad, as well as in lower demand from the affected sales markets.

The connection between causes abroad and their effects in Switzerland is not always immediately apparent. Switzerland’s close integration into international trade and its dependence on critical imports such as energy, food and raw materials underline the potentially far-reaching consequences of climate-related disruptions abroad.

Compared with Switzerland’s total economic output, the modelled losses resulting from the indirect effects of global climate change appear to be minor. However, they may be significant for certain sectors due to specific dependencies within the supply chain and vulnerability to climate-related hazards.

Sectors such as agriculture, tourism and financial services may be affected. Indirect effects should be taken into account in the respective adaptation strategies so as not to jeopardise (global) competitiveness.

Findings and results

Climate change has a wide range of impacts on the Swiss economy and security of supply. The subpages look at the consequences of weather events (river flooding, winter storms and tropical cyclones) and sea-level rise on Switzerland’s upstream supply chains (i.e. goods and services supplied).

Findings

Which sectors are most severely affected and how are production losses developing up to 2060? Which climate risks are causing the greatest disruptions in international supply chains? This section outlines the findings and the recommendations for action.
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Case study: China

China is one of Switzerland’s most important trading partners – and simultaneously a country hit particularly hard by the effects of climate change, making it highly vulnerable. The case study examines the potential impact on Swiss industries.

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Sea level rise

Many of Switzerland’s trading partners have a coastline, which means that they are affected by rising sea levels. This section discusses how this impacts the Swiss economy, both directly and indirectly.

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Downloads

The comprehensive results of the project, interpretations and explanations of the method are summarised in the final report:

NCCS-Impacts: Final Report. Project: Global impacts of climate change on Switzerland (en)

Project team

The project was carried out on behalf of the NCCS from 2023 to 2025 as part of the overarching program Decision Support for Dealing with Climate Change in Switzerland: a cross-sectoral approach. Contributors included the following organisations and individuals:

NCCS-Impacts programme coordination
Andreas Fischer, Angela Michiko Hama, NCCS/MeteoSwiss

Project Management
Vincent Roth, Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU

Head of Implementation
Samuel Brown, Celsius Pro

Scientific Director
David N. Bresch, ETH Zürich

Content development

CelsiusPro (Samuel Brown, Kaspar Tobler, Ganna Morger, Chris Fairless, Marcel Serina)
Correntics (Michael Gloor, Gaudenz Halter, Alina Mastai)
EBP Switzerland Ltd. (Julia Brandes, Denise Fussen, Simone Juon)
Risk Dialogue Foundation (Samuel Eberenz, Kimon Arvinitis)

Advisory Group

FOEN (Vincent Roth, Roland Hohmann)
WIFO (Ina Meyer)
Weather and Climate Risk Group, ETH Zürich (David N. Bresch)
NCCS (Andreas Fischer, Michiko Hama)
DWD (Tobias Geiger)

Contact

Vincent Roth
vincent.roth@bafu.admin.ch

Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
CH-3003 Bern
info@bafu.admin.ch