The Climate Scenarios CH2018 confirm the previously known trends. However, they present a substantially more detailed picture of the future Swiss climate.
Work on the national Climate scenarios commenced at the beginning of this century. The first comprehensive estimates were presented in the report “Climate Change and Switzerland 2050” (CH2007). Four years later, the “Scenarios for Climate Change in Switzerland CH2011” followed. CH2018 – the new generation of Swiss climate scenarios – provides several innovations:
Expanded knowledge base
Another seven years’ worth of data have been collected since the previous report. This has permitted a more precise determination of the measurement series trends. The latest scientific findings have also informed the CH2018 Scenarios. For example, the findings of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2013, were taken into consideration.
More and better models
Over the course of the last few years, a new generation of global and regional climate simulations has been developed, reflecting the current state of climate research and using the most up-to-date models. The new simulations have four times the spatial resolution of the simulations used in 2011 for the last report. Moreover, the statistical methods have been refined in order to facilitate improvements in localisation.
Closer ties to practice
The existing knowledge of the needs of users is continually growing. With these needs in mind, the current Climate Scenarios provide more concrete information on a range of key areas, including extreme events and local climate indicators.
The new Climate Scenarios confirm and expand the picture of future climate change in Switzerland that has been established in previous studies. In addition, there is now quantitative information for various trends which were previously only qualitative, such as precipitation extremes.
Taking users’ needs into consideration will be critical for the successful future development of new Swiss Climate Scenarios. Regular interactions between the producers and users of Climate Services will be a priority for the National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) in the coming years.
Last modification 13.12.2018