Emission scenario

A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols) based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socio-economic development, technological change, energy and land use) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections. Source: IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.

Last modification 31.07.2018

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