Local changes

Future climate change will result in more summer days in the Jura region, as well as a significant increase in tropical nights in lower-lying areas. By the middle of this century, Basel and Neuchâtel could see as many tropical nights as there are in southern Ticino in today’s climate. In winter, the number of frost days will decrease, and high-altitude locations in Jura that currently have mean temperatures below 0 °C could reach positive values.

Map of the Jura region with indication of the measurement stations.

In the future, temperature increases in all seasons can be expected at all monitoring stations in the Jura region. With unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions (emission scenario RCP8.5), average summer temperatures at the stations of Basel and Neuchatel will reach from 20.8°C to over 22°C by the middle of the century. This exceeds the current average temperature by more than 2°C. The temperatures of the future would thus be similar to those typically seen in Locarno or Lugano today.

The warmer summers will bring an additional stress factor in the form of an increased number of tropical nights – nights during which temperatures do not fall below 20°C. In Basel and Neuchâtel, an average of 0.6 and 1.5 tropical nights, respectively, are recorded each year in the current climate. Without concerted climate change mitigation efforts (RCP8.5), the number of tropical nights increases significantly in lower-lying areas in particular, potentially rising up to 15.8 (in Basel) and 22.0 (in Neuchâtel). These figures are even higher than those recorded at present at stations such as Locarno and Lugano.

Similar results are obtained for summer days, days on which the daily maximum temperature surpasses 25°C: Basel currently has 51 summer days per year on average, twice as many as Rünenberg, which is located 300 m higher. Without climate change mitigation, Rünenberg will reach similar or even higher numbers of summer days as Basel has today. In Basel, we can expect between 76 and 97 summer days.

In winter, the temperature rise with no climate change mitigation (RCP8.5) will result in average temperatures at higher-altitude stations such as Chasseral, La Chaux-de-Fonds, and La Dôle of around or slightly above 0°C by the middle of the century. Currently, all three stations are located above the average winter zero-degree isotherm, i.e., their mean winter temperatures are well below 0°C. The number of frost days – days with minimum temperatures below 0°C – will also decrease accordingly in these locations. At Chasseral and La Dôle, 104 to 124 (Chasseral) and 126 (La Dôle) frost days per year can be expected; currently, over 150 frost days are recorded on average.

The expected tendency towards increased winter precipitation and reduced summer precipitation is seen at all stations in the scenario without climate change mitigation (RCP8.5). In Basel, for example, summer precipitation will amount to between 57 mm and 91 mm per month by the middle of the century (compared to the current 84 mm per month), thus ranging from a slight increase to a marked decrease. In the same scenario, winter precipitation is projected to increase from 54 mm to 58–69 mm per month. Basel could therefore experience a more even distribution of precipitation throughout the year as a result of climate change.

What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.

What does "the middle of the century" mean? You can find an explanation of the CH2018 time periods here.

Tables

The tables below show the seasonal absolute values for temperature, precipitation, and certain climate indicators for today (normal period 1981–2010) and for the two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) around the middle of the century (2060) at selected monitoring stations in the Jura Region.

Temperature

 

Temperature in winter (°C)

Temperature in summer (°C)

Stations

m a.s.l.

Situation today

Situation around 2060

Situation today

Situation around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Basel/Binningen

316

+2.2

+2.9 to +4.3

+4.2 to +5.4

+18.8

+19.5 to +20.7

+20.8 to +22.3

Chasseral

1599

-2.5

-2.0 to -0.6

-0.7 to +0.4

+10.8

+11.8 to +13.3

+13.3 to +15.3

La Chaux-de-Fonds

1017

-1.1

-0.3 to +1

+0.9 to +2

+14.3

+15.2 to +16.4

+16.5 to +18.3

La Dôle

1670

-2.5

-1.9 to -0.7

-0.6 to +0.5

+11.0

+12.0 to +13.5

+13.6 to +15.6

Neuchâtel

485

+1.9

+2.7 to +3.9

+3.8 to +4.8

+18.8

+19.5 to +20.7

+20.8 to +22.5

Rünenberg

611

+1.1

+1.7 to +3.2

+3.2 to +4.3

+17.3

+18.1 to +19.3

+19.5 to +21.4

The ‘situation today‘ represents the actual measured seasonal average temperature over the normal period of 1981 to2010. The ‘situation around 2060‘ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

At the Basel/Binningen monitoring station, by the middle of this century (2060), the average winter temperature will increase from 2.2°C today to a likely 4.2–5.4°C, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated (RCP8.5). In this scenario, an average summer temperature of between 20.8°C and 22.3°C is possible (compared to 18.8°C today). With consistent climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), the increase in winter temperatures in Basel/Binningen can be moderated, with average temperatures of 2.9–4.3 °C by 2060. In summer, temperatures will only rise to around 19.5–20.7°C.

Precipitation

 

Precipitation in winter (mm/month)

Precipitation in summer (mm/month)

m a.s.l.

Situation today

Situation around 2060

Situation today

Situation around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

316

54

52 to 64

58 to 69

84

68 to 93

57 to 91

1599

113

105 to 130

113 to 141

107

83 to 117

76 to 108

1017

110

106 to 130

114 to 140

125

99 to 134

90 to 128

1670

169

164 to 197

171 to 210

136

110 to 144

99 to 126

485

74

71 to 88

77 to 95

90

68 to 96

63 to 91

611

58

58 to 72

63 to 81

106

89 to 113

75 to 119

The ‘situation today’ represents the actual measured seasonal average precipitation over the normal period of 1981 to 2010. The ‘situation around 2060’ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

At the Chasseral monitoring station, the current average precipitation is 107 mm per month during the summer months. Without any climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), during the period around 2060, summer precipitation will tend to decrease. Values between 76 mm and 108 mm per month are possible. In the same scenario, winter precipitation is projected to increase from 113 mm to values between 113 mm and 141 mm per month. If comprehensive measures are implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), substantial changes in precipitation can be avoided. In summer, precipitation would thus be between 83 mm and 117 mm per month, and in winter between 105 mm and 130 mm per month.

Summer days

Stations

m a.s.l.

Summer days now

Summer days around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Basel/Binningen

316

51

59 to 71

76 to 97

Chasseral

1599

0

1 to 3

2 to 10

La Chaux-de-Fonds

1017

13

17 to 30

27 to 50

La Dôle

1670

1

1 to 4

3 to 12

Neuchâtel

485

46

54 to 67

71 to 90

Rünenberg

611

27

33 to 46

48 to 71

‘Summer days now’ represents the actual recorded number of summer days per year, averaged over the normal period of 1981 to 2010. ‘Summer days around 2060’ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

Today, the monitoring location of La Chaux-de-Fonds has an average of 13 summer days (temperature of at least 25°C) per year. Without climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), there could be up to 50 summer days per year in La Chaux-de-Fonds by the middle of this century (2060). With consistent implementation of climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), the increase would be less drastic, up to 30 summer days.

Tropical nights

Stations

m a.s.l.

Tropical nights now

Tropical nights around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Basel/Binningen

316

0.6

1.4 to 5.0

5.2 to 15.8

Chasseral

1599

0.1

0.0 to 0.5

0.3 to 2.5

La Chaux-de-Fonds

1017

0.0

0.0 to 0.1

0.0 to 0.9

La Dôle

1670

0.0

0.0 to 0.5

0.2 to 2.8

Neuchâtel

485

1.5

3.8 to 8.7

10.1 to 22.0

Rünenberg

611

1.0

2.7 to 7.1

7.6 to 19.7

‘Tropical nights now’ represents the actual recorded number of tropical nights per year, averaged over the normal period of 1981 to 2010. ‘Tropical nights around 2060’ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

At the monitoring station in Neuchâtel, an average of 1.5 tropical nights per year were recorded during the normal period of 1981–2010. Without climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), there could be up to 22.0 tropical nights per year at this station by the middle of this century (2060). With consistent climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), the average number of tropical nights would be limited to up to 8.7 per year.

Frost days

Stations

m a.s.l.

Frost days now

Frost days around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Basel/Binningen

316

64

42 to 56

33 to 43

Chasseral

1599

154

124 - 147

104 to 124

La Chaux-de-Fonds

1017

133

105 to 127

89 to 107

La Dôle

1670

158

124 to 151

104 to 126

Neuchâtel

485

58

37 to 51

27 to 39

Rünenberg

611

77

53 to 68

40 to 54

‘Frost days now’ represents the actual recorded number of frost days per year, averaged over the normal period of 1981 to 2010. ‘Frost days around 2060’ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

The monitoring location of La Dôle has an average of 158 frost days (minimum temperature below 0°C) per year. Without climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), the number of frost days in La Dôle is projected to decrease to 104–126 per year by the middle of this century (2060). With consistent climate change mitigation, there will be a smaller reduction in the number of frost days per year, to 124–151.

Days with fresh snowfall

Stations

m a.s.l.

Days with fresh snowfall now

Days with fresh snowfall around 2060

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Basel/Binningen

316

9

5 to 9

4 to 6

Chasseral

1599

62

40 to 59

32 to 47

La Chaux-de-Fonds

1017

36

26 to 41

20 to 30

La Dôle

1670

69

45 to 66

33 to 50

Neuchâtel

485

10

7 to 11

4 to 8

Rünenberg

611

16

10 to 17

6 to 14

‘Days with fresh snowfall now’ represents the actual recorded number of fresh snowfall days peryear, averaged over the normal period of 1981 to 2010. ‘Days with fresh snowfall around 2060’ gives the relevant projections for the period from 2045 to 2074.
Legend

In Rünenberg, an average of 16 days with fresh snowfall (minimum of 1 mm of precipitation falling in the form of snow) per year were recorded during the normal period of 1981–2010. Without climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), the number of days with fresh snowfall per year will decrease to 6–14 at the Rünenberg monitoring station by the middle of the century (2060). With consistent climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), there will be a smaller reduction in the number of days of fresh snowfall per year, to 10–17 days; a slight increase cannot be ruled out.

Charts

The interactive charts for all indicators use Lucerne as an example. You can find the figures for other stations in the CH2018 web Atlas.

La Chaux-de-Fonds

What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.

Last modification 11.12.2018

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