Climate Change Scenarios CH2018 - Jura

In the Jura region, we can expect temperatures to rise by 2–3°C compared to today’s levels by the middle of this century if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked. The summer months can also be expected to be drier, whereas precipitation in winter will increase.

Temperature

Since measurements began in 1864, temperatures in the Jura region of Switzerland have risen significantly. How severely and quickly warming takes place depends on how the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at the current rate (emission scenario RCP8.5), then the annual average temperature in the Jura region can be expected to rise by a further 2.0–3.1°C by the middle of this century. The warming will be greater in the summer months than in the winter. If a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) can be achieved globally, the rise in annual average temperature can be restricted to a probable 0.7–1.9°C.

Precipitation

Summer precipitation in the Jura region changed very little in the 20th century, whereas precipitation in the winter months increased significantly. With no effective climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), precipitation in the colder season is likely to increase even further: By the middle of this century, climate models indicate an increase of between 5% and 28% in the winter months (December to February). In summer, however, less rain is expected to fall: The simulated changes range from 0% to -28%. Climate change mitigation would moderate these changes significantly. Despite reductions in total precipitation, heavy rainfall events are likely to increase in number and intensity in all seasons. In general, the uncertainty of changes in precipitation is greater than for changes in temperature.

What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.

Additional Information

What do the changes mean for my place of residence?

Here you will find comprehensive information on the future of the climate at a number of monitoring stations in the Jura region. How many tropical nights can be expected, for example, in Basel around the year 2060? How many days of fresh snowfall can be expected in Chasseral?

How does the climate of the Jura change at different elevations?

Below, you will find detailed information on the future climate at different elevations. How many frost days can be expected at altitudes above 1,200 m a.s.l. by the end of the century? How many summer days will there be below 400 m a.s.l.?

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Last modification 11.12.2018

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Federal office of meteorology and climatology MeteoSwiss
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Climate scenarios
Andreas Fischer

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