In the Alpine foothills, we can expect temperatures to rise by 2–3°C compared to today’s levels by the middle of this century if global greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced. Winter precipitation is also expected to increase, whereas the summer months will become drier.
Temperature
Since measurements began in 1864, temperatures in the Alpine foothills have risen significantly. How severely and quickly warming takes place depends on how the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at the current rate (RCP8.5 emission scenario), then the annual average temperature in the Alpine foothills can be expected to rise by a further 2.0–3.3°C above that of the normal period of 1981–2010 by the middle of this century. This warming is greater in summer than in winter. If a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) can be achieved globally, however, then the additional warming can probably be restricted to 0.6–2.0°C.
Deviation of seasonal mean temperatures from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average temperature compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural variability as well as model uncertainty.
Precipitation
Summer precipitation in the Alpine foothills changed little in the 20th century, whereas precipitation in the winter months increased significantly. Without effective climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), precipitation in winter is likely to increase even further: By the middle of this century, climate models indicate an increase of between 2% and 27% in the winter months (December to February). In summer, however, less rain is expected to fall: The simulated changes range between -27% and +5%. Climate change mitigation would moderate these changes significantly. Despite reductions in total precipitation, heavy rainfall events are likely to increase in number and intensity, both in summer and in the other seasons. In general, the uncertainty of changes in precipitation levels is greater than for changes in temperature.
Deviation of seasonal mean precipitation from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average precipitation compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural fluctuations as well as system-based uncertainties.
What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.
Additional Information
Links
Observed climate change in Switzerland
Overview of climatic changes in Switzerland since the start of measurements
Climate change scenarios CH2018 for the Jura region
Look here for information about the future climate in the Jura Region.
Last modification 22.12.2021
Contact
Federal office of meteorology and climatology MeteoSwiss
Operation Center 1
P.O. Box
CH-8058 Zurich-Airport
