Climate Change Scenarios CH2018 - Pre-Alps

In the Alpine foothills, we can expect temperatures to rise by 2–3°C compared to today’s levels by the middle of this century if global greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced. Winter precipitation is also expected to increase, whereas the summer months will become drier.

Temperature

Since measurements began in 1864, temperatures in the Alpine foothills have risen significantly. How severely and quickly warming takes place depends on how the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at the current rate (RCP8.5 emission scenario), then the annual average temperature in the Alpine foothills can be expected to rise by a further 2.0–3.3°C above that of the normal period of 1981–2010 by the middle of this century. This warming is greater in summer than in winter. If a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) can be achieved globally, however, then the additional warming can probably be restricted to 0.6–2.0°C.

Precipitation

Summer precipitation in the Alpine foothills changed little in the 20th century, whereas precipitation in the winter months increased significantly. Without effective climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), precipitation in winter is likely to increase even further: By the middle of this century, climate models indicate an increase of between 2% and 27% in the winter months (December to February). In summer, however, less rain is expected to fall: The simulated changes range between -27% and +5%. Climate change mitigation would moderate these changes significantly. Despite reductions in total precipitation, heavy rainfall events are likely to increase in number and intensity, both in summer and in the other seasons. In general, the uncertainty of changes in precipitation levels is greater than for changes in temperature. 

What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.

Additional Information

What do the changes mean for my place of residence?

On this page you will find detailed information on the projected climate at various monitoring stations in the Alpine foothills. How many summer days can be expected, for example, in Lucerne around the year 2060? How many days will there be fresh snow on the Säntis mountain peak?

How does the climate of the Pre-Alps change at different elevations?

Below, you will find detailed information on the future climate in the Pre-Alps at different elevations. How drastic will the decrease in the number of frost days be at higher altitudes? How many tropical nights will there be below 600 m a.s.l.?

Links

Last modification 21.11.2018

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Climate scenarios
Andreas Fischer

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Gezeigt ist eine Karte der Schweiz mit den Umrissen der Grossregion Voralpen. Sie beinhaltet Teile der Kantone Waadt, Freiburg, Bern, Luzern, Obwalden, Nidwalden, Schwyz, St. Gallen, Appenzell Ausserrhoden und Innerrhoden.
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