In Switzerland, the Alps will be the region that experiences the most pronounced warming. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked, the annual average temperature will probably rise by 2–4°C by the middle of the century. Precipitation is also expected to decrease in summer but increase in winter.
Temperature
Since measurements began in 1864, temperatures in the Alps have risen significantly. How severely and quickly warming takes place depends on how the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at the current rate (RCP8.5 emission scenario), the annual average temperature in the Alpine region of Switzerland can be expected to rise by an additional 2.1–3.9°C by the middle of this century. If a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6 emission scenario) can be achieved globally, however, the additional warming can probably be restricted to 0.7–2.1°C. In both cases, the warming will be greater in the summer than in the winter.
Deviation of seasonal mean temperatures from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) in the Alps. The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average temperature compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural variability as well as model uncertainty.
Precipitation
Summer precipitation in the Alps changed relatively little over the course of the 20th century. Without effective climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), precipitation in the winter is likely to increase even further in the future: By the middle of this century, climate models indicate an increase of between 0% and 17% in the months of December to February. In summer, the downward trend is less pronounced in the Alpine region than north of the Alps. The change in precipitation in this season ranges between -18% and +15% on average over the Alpine region; however, most model calculations do show a reduction in precipitation volumes. Climate change mitigation measures would moderate these changes significantly.
Heavy rainfall events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity in all seasons. In general, the uncertainty of changes in precipitation levels is greater than for changes in temperature.
Deviation of seasonal mean precipitation from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) in the Alps. The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average precipitation compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural fluctuations as well as system-based uncertainties.
What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.
Additional Information
Links
Observed climate change in Switzerland
Overview of climatic changes in Switzerland since the start of measurements
Climate change scenarios CH2018 for the Jura region
Look here for information about the future climate in the Jura Region.
Last modification 22.12.2021
Contact
Federal office of meteorology and climatology MeteoSwiss
Operation Center 1
P.O. Box
CH-8058 Zurich-Airport
