In the Jura region, we can expect temperatures to rise by 2–3°C compared to today’s levels by the middle of this century if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked. The summer months can also be expected to be drier, whereas precipitation in winter will increase.
Temperature
Since measurements began in 1864, temperatures in the Jura region of Switzerland have risen significantly. How severely and quickly warming takes place depends on how the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at the current rate (emission scenario RCP8.5), then the annual average temperature in the Jura region can be expected to rise by a further 2.0–3.1°C by the middle of this century. The warming will be greater in the summer months than in the winter. If a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) can be achieved globally, the rise in annual average temperature can be restricted to a probable 0.7–1.9°C.
Deviation of seasonal mean temperatures from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average temperature compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural variability as well as model uncertainty.
Precipitation
Summer precipitation in the Jura region changed very little in the 20th century, whereas precipitation in the winter months increased significantly. With no effective climate change mitigation (RCP8.5), precipitation in the colder season is likely to increase even further: By the middle of this century, climate models indicate an increase of between 5% and 28% in the winter months (December to February). In summer, however, less rain is expected to fall: The simulated changes range from 0% to -28%. Climate change mitigation would moderate these changes significantly. Despite reductions in total precipitation, heavy rainfall events are likely to increase in number and intensity in all seasons. In general, the uncertainty of changes in precipitation is greater than for changes in temperature.
Deviation of seasonal mean precipitation from the average in the normal period for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). The figure shows observations and climate simulations for the emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The coloured areas indicate the range of the simulations with different climate models and include random year-to-year variability due to internal climate variability as well as model uncertainty.
Change in average precipitation compared to today (normal period 1981–2010) for winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) based on climate simulations for emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The changes reflect average values over 30-year periods around the years 2035 (near future), 2060 (middle of the century), and 2085 (end of the century). The horizontal lines represent the median value across the simulations with different climate models. The coloured bars show the range of all simulations and include natural fluctuations as well as system-based uncertainties.
What do RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 mean? You can find an explanation of the emission scenarios here.
Additional Information
Links
Observed climate change in Switzerland
Overview of climatic changes in Switzerland since the start of measurements
Climate change scenarios for the Swiss Plateau
Look here for information about the future climate on the Swiss Plateau.
Last modification 22.12.2021
Contact
Federal office of meteorology and climatology MeteoSwiss
Operation Center 1
P.O. Box
CH-8058 Zurich-Airport
